Gacha Pity Probability Calculator

Frequently asked

Q. Why isn’t Genshin rate-up just 0.6%?

A. The base 0.6% holds through pull 73, then climbs almost linearly through 89 (soft pity), 90 is hard pity, and there’s a 50% chance the first 5-star is rate-up with the next guaranteed if you lose. A naive product can’t handle that.

Q. Is the Monte Carlo accurate?

A. 100k runs give ±0.3% sample std; the 1M high-precision mode tightens to ±0.1%. Accuracy hinges on the curve itself — refreshed quarterly with datamining.

Q. Does the tool fetch game data?

A. No. It never touches game clients or servers — it simulates from your manual inputs. The probability curves are stored statically, sourced from official disclosure + community datamining.

Q. Why a different model for Blue Archive?

A. Blue Archive has (1) no soft pity, (2) a 200-pull ticket-exchange guarantee, and (3) a base 3% on 3-stars. The tool runs a dedicated model: (200 − current) to guarantee + rate-up vs. off rate.

Q. If reality diverges from the sim?

A. That’s variance. "70–80 average" averages the 30-pull luckies and the 89-pull unluckies — the percentile bands make this concrete.